When It Comes to Taxes, Data Should Clarify, Not Confuse
A version of this text was submitted as a letter to the editor in Decaturish and will appear in its Voter Guide.
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“60% of the time, it works every time.”
— Brian Fantana, Channel 4 News, San Diego
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As I’m neck-deep in the Avondale Estates City Commissioner race, I’ve seen a lot of numbers thrown around, especially when it comes to taxes.
I’ve worked in research and data analysis for 20+ years, so I’m constantly thinking about how to use statistics to help people understand complex issues in a way that’s relatable and clear. In fact, I feel like this is one of the top attributes making me a qualified candidate for the Commissioner role.
Unfortunately, during the past 6 weeks, I’ve found myself frustrated and even confused by a lot of the information out there. I’m spending hours and hours each week studying and learning, and I can only imagine how dizzying it can be for residents coming to this information for the first time.
I’d like to use an example of a data point making the rounds as a central campaign issue supporting the concern that residential property taxes are too high: Avondale Estates’ cumulative residential property taxes grew twice as fast as U.S. inflation from 2020 to 2025. (60% vs. 30%)
That sounds like a big gap. As a citizen thinking about how this affects me personally, it’s worrisome. Everything is becoming more expensive, and I don’t want taxes to create even more of a burden!
In my role as a hopeful Commissioner, understanding this issue is critically important, because I’ll have to be prepared to make decisions that impact tax allocation.
However, the more I look at this data, I’ve found far more questions than answers. Questions such as:
What was the dollar value of Avondale Estates’ cumulative tax base in 2020? How does that compare to the size of the U.S. economy?
How fast is the Avondale Estates economy growing in comparison to the U.S.? If it’s growing a lot faster, does the rate of increase make sense?
How much has the cost of living gone up in Avondale Estates itself, in comparison to our taxes? Is that in step?
How much have commercial property taxes gone up in that same time frame? Is it more, less, or the same as residential?
How do outliers impact the cumulative value? (For example, tear-downs or renovations on existing properties that may double or triple property value and thus their tax volume)
The current Board of Mayor and Commissioners voted in summer 2025 to keep the millage rate the same. How would another year of data impact this comparison, as U.S. inflation has moderated but is still above 3%?
What is the tax growth rate on a per-property basis? If residents are worried about personal finances and personal tax increases, why should we be comparing cumulative figures at all?
My point here isn’t to question the validity of the data, which is what it is. Nor is it to question the assumption: That Avondale Estates’ taxes are going up too fast. That is a point very worthy of discussion and close review, and many of the answers to these questions above may further support the position that we need local tax reform.
However, I do challenge the assumption that being transparent simply means presenting an argument supported by data. I implore my fellow voters to look past eye-popping numbers and ask how candidates and elected officials plan to solve problems or continue successes that the data reveals or highlights.
We must hold them accountable to go beyond pointing out problems and ask that they provide context and insights from data that leads to clear goals and actions. If elected, I will challenge our leadership and hold myself accountable to communicating with the public by using statistics paired with proposed solutions that have measurable goals, which everyone can understand at a single glance. Data should clarify, not confuse.
Feel free to reach out to me at dan4avondale@gmail.com, or come out to meet me at any of these upcoming events: https://www.dan4avondale.com/meet-with-me